Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sandviken have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandviken have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1.20 for Sandviken — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Sandviken's last 10 away games) — Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sandviken in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1 for Sandviken and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 1–3 Sandviken — a Sandviken win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 62% versus Sandviken 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 55% | Sandviken 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Varbergs BoIS FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sandviken have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 xG and Sandviken 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.782 / defence 1.076 | Sandviken attack 1.021 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Sandviken's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 29 games and Sandviken's last 29.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 34%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.65 | Draw 3.59 | Sandviken 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Sandviken 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 30 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 / Sandviken 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.782 / def 1.076 | Sandviken attack 1.021 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sandviken xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Varbergs BoIS FC 2 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance of winning, Sandviken a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.78) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (1.02x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 29 games and Sandviken's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.59
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Sandviken xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.29 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 9W 9D 11L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 10L across 29 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.48 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 4W 5D 5L from their last 14 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandviken's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across their last 14 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 10L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Sandviken away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Sandviken 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 64% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Sandviken in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 57% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 64% of Sandviken's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 57% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Sandviken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Sandviken 2-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 xG and Sandviken 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Sandviken attack 1.02 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 34%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 55%, Sandviken 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.24 PPG, Sandviken 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.