Umeå FC 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Umeå FC and Trelleborg meet at Umea Energi Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 1.006 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.215. Data: 1 Umeå FC games / 31 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Umeå FC 1.12 / Trelleborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 1.006 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs Trelleborg kick off?
Umeå FC vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Umeå FC 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Umeå FC vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Trelleborg part of?
Umeå FC vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 30% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Umeå FC and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and Trelleborg in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Trelleborg away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Umeå FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.01x) against Umeå FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.77
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.41
Trelleborg xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.41 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Umeå FC
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Umeå FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Umeå FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.12 xG and Trelleborg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 30% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 44%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.