🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 1.80 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kalmar FF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 4–0 with Kalmar FF winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.975 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.174. Data: 1 Kalmar FF games / 31 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 30% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 42%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 40% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights