Trelleborg 0-3 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Utsikten at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 0D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utsikten — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utsikten — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Utsikten in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Utsikten 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 67% and Utsikten 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 64% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Utsikten 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / defence 1.053 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.075. Utsikten's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Trelleborg games / 42 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 37%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Utsikten 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 60% | Utsikten 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 10 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Trelleborg 1.19 / Utsikten 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / def 1.053 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Utsikten xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Utsikten kick off?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 July 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Trelleborg 0 - 3 Utsikten.
Where is Trelleborg vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Utsikten part of?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Utsikten a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Trelleborg and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Utsikten (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (1.07) and Utsikten's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.58
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Utsikten xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.25 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 18W 7D 17L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 14L across 42 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.45 PPG, Utsikten on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.52 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Utsikten away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.71 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
3
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Utsikten have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 62%, Utsikten 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Trelleborg) and 48% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Trelleborg's games and 52% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Trelleborg's recent games and 48% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Utsikten tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Trelleborg 0-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Utsikten 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Utsikten outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Utsikten attack 1.10 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 37%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 64%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.45 PPG, Utsikten 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.