Trelleborg 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ostersunds FK's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Trelleborg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Trelleborg, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 67% versus Ostersunds FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 58% | Ostersunds FK 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / defence 1.260 | Ostersunds FK attack 1.022 / defence 0.627. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.162. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.627 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Trelleborg games / 36 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 25% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 49%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 2.04. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 80% | Ostersunds FK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 25% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Trelleborg 0.98 / Ostersunds FK 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / def 1.260 | Ostersunds FK attack 1.022 / def 0.627 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Ostersunds FK xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 25% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
25%
4.03
26%
3.84
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.48
1.50
Ostersunds FK xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
18.02
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.50 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 10W 15D 35L from 60 games, 0.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (15W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 8D 20L from 30 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 15D 35L in their last 60 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.70 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 67%, Ostersunds FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Trelleborg) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trelleborg's games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Trelleborg's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.50 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.26 against Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 0.63, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 25% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 49%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 58%, Ostersunds FK 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.