Trelleborg 2-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Vångavallen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 2–4 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 56% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Trelleborg 35% | Landskrona BoIS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.60 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.122 / defence 1.022 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.702 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.130. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Trelleborg games / 23 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 50% | Landskrona BoIS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Trelleborg 1.60 / Landskrona BoIS 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.122 / def 1.022 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.702 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 October 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Trelleborg 2 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 56% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.12x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.00
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.41
0.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.81 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 10W 7D 6L from 23 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 8L across 23 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.61 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Trelleborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Trelleborg's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 2.09 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
3
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 54%, Landskrona BoIS 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Trelleborg) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trelleborg's games and 64% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Trelleborg's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 2-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.60 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.81 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.70 / defence 1.32, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 35%, Landskrona BoIS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.61 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.