Helsingborg 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Helsingborg, 2.00 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 32% versus GIF Sundsvall 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 46% | GIF Sundsvall 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.32 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.100 / defence 0.993 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.854 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.117. Data: 23 Helsingborg games / 22 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 27%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 3.70. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Helsingborg 1.32 / GIF Sundsvall 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.100 / def 0.993 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.854 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 45% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (1.10) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.85x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.57
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.95 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 11W 6D 5L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 12W 4D 6L from 22 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.82 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; GIF Sundsvall in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 12W 4D 6L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.70 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 30%, GIF Sundsvall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Helsingborg and 30% for GIF Sundsvall.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 30% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 30% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Helsingborg 1-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.32 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 45% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 27%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 46%, GIF Sundsvall 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.77 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.