Orgryte IS 1-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 3W 6D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Falkenbergs FF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.30 for Falkenbergs FF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Falkenbergs FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 2–3 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Falkenbergs FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 61% and Falkenbergs FF 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 44% | Falkenbergs FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.56 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.055 / defence 1.164 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.761 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.128. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Orgryte IS games / 23 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Falkenbergs FF 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 60% | Falkenbergs FF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Orgryte IS 1.56 / Falkenbergs FF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.055 / def 1.164 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.761 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Falkenbergs FF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 50% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.76x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.94
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
19.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.00 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 6W 10D 7L from 23 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 12L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.00 for Falkenbergs FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 3W 6D 2L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Falkenbergs FF's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.09 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Falkenbergs FF in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 6W 10D 7L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.36 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Falkenbergs FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 54%, Falkenbergs FF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Orgryte IS) and 64% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 36% of games; Falkenbergs FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Orgryte IS's games and 64% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 64% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, as Orgryte IS and Falkenbergs FF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.56 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.76 / defence 1.37, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 44%, Falkenbergs FF 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.22 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.