Trelleborg 0-6 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Trelleborg welcome Gais to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gais have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gais — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 2, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gais in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 60% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 60% | Gais 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Gais 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.880 / defence 1.220 | Gais attack 1.453 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.257. Gais's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gais have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Trelleborg games / 25 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 15% | Draw 20% | Gais 65%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Gais 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Gais (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 50% | Gais 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 15% | Draw 20% | Gais 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Trelleborg 0.98 / Gais 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.880 / def 1.220 | Gais attack 1.453 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Gais (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Gais xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Gais kick off?
Trelleborg vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Gais?
Trelleborg 0 - 6 Gais.
Where is Trelleborg vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Gais part of?
Trelleborg vs Gais is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 15% chance of winning, Gais a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trelleborg and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Gais in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.88) and Gais's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
15%
6.83
20%
4.91
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.21
2.23
Gais xG
6.83
15%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
11%
9.28
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
2%
63.40
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Trelleborg and 2.23 for Gais, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 9W 6D 10L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 14W 6D 5L from 25 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trelleborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L).
On the road, Gais have gone 6W 4D 2L from 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 2.00 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Gais in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Gais have gone 14W 6D 5L in their last 25 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.58 PPG; Gais away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Gais in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Gais won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Trelleborg 0-6 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 42%, Gais 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Trelleborg and 67% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gais in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Trelleborg's matches and 67% of Gais's.
Do Trelleborg and Gais tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gais in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Trelleborg 0-6 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.98 xG and Gais 2.23 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 2.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Gais attack 1.45 / defence 0.68, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 15% | Draw 20% | Gais 65%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 60%, Gais 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.