Skövde AIK 2-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Skövde AIK have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Södermalms IP, Skövde AIK have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Orgryte IS arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Skövde AIK lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 54% versus Orgryte IS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.837 / defence 1.021 | Orgryte IS attack 0.860 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.082. Data: 44 Skövde AIK games / 44 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 44% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 28%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 60% | Orgryte IS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 44% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Skövde AIK 1.26 / Orgryte IS 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.837 / def 1.021 | Orgryte IS attack 0.860 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Orgryte IS xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Skövde AIK 2 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 44% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Skövde AIK 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 0.84x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.86x) against Skövde AIK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.50
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Orgryte IS xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.95 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Skövde AIK come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 15D 17L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (12W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.16 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Skövde AIK's home form reads 6W 10D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.34 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.33 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 57%, Orgryte IS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Skövde AIK) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Skövde AIK's games and 57% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Orgryte IS 2-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 44% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 28%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.16 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.