Orgryte IS 1-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Helsingborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.20 PPG versus Helsingborg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for Helsingborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 56% versus Helsingborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 54% | Helsingborg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Helsingborg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.017 / defence 1.070 | Helsingborg attack 0.770 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.071. Data: 43 Orgryte IS games / 13 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 50% | Helsingborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Orgryte IS 1.39 / Helsingborg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.017 / def 1.070 | Helsingborg attack 0.770 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Helsingborg xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orgryte IS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.02x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.65
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.27
0.88
Helsingborg xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.88 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 12W 15D 16L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 7W 9D 27L from 43 games, 0.70 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 14L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 0.72 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 7W 9D 27L in their last 43 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Helsingborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.24 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
4
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Helsingborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 52%, Helsingborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Orgryte IS) and 52% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 29% of games; Helsingborg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 52% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 52% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.39 xG and Helsingborg 0.88 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Helsingborg attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Helsingborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 54%, Helsingborg 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Helsingborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.