Gefle IF 2-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gefle IF have posted 4W 1D 2L at Gavlevallen — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gefle IF at 1.10 PPG versus Ostersunds FK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gefle IF 57% and Ostersunds FK 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 43% | Ostersunds FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.26 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.053 / defence 1.213 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.855 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.082. Data: 14 Gefle IF games / 44 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 40% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gefle IF at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gefle IF 57% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 40% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gefle IF 1.26 / Ostersunds FK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.053 / def 1.213 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.855 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ostersunds FK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Gefle IF 2 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 40% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gefle IF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.62
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.39
1.12
Ostersunds FK xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.12 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gefle IF come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 3D 6L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.29 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gefle IF's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.86 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gefle IF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
3
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2024, when Gefle IF 0-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 57%, Ostersunds FK 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Gefle IF) and 29% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 43%; Ostersunds FK in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 29% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Gefle IF's recent games and 29% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK finished level at 2-2 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.26 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.12 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 40% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 43%, Ostersunds FK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.29 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.