Skövde AIK 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Skövde AIK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's home record at Södermalms IP: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Skövde AIK) versus 1.00 (GIF Sundsvall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Skövde AIK, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Skövde AIK trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 52% versus GIF Sundsvall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.43 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.812 / defence 0.958 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.966 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.192. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Skövde AIK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Skövde AIK games / 18 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 43% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 28%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | GIF Sundsvall 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 43% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Skövde AIK 1.43 / GIF Sundsvall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.812 / def 0.958 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.966 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Skövde AIK 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 43% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Skövde AIK 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.51
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.53
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 14W 15D 19L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 32L across 48 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Skövde AIK by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 7W 10D 6L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 3W 4D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.06 scored and 2.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 7D 32L in their last 48 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.35 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIF Sundsvall have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 52%, GIF Sundsvall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Skövde AIK) and 56% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 26% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 56% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.43 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 43% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 28%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, GIF Sundsvall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.