Gais 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host AFC Eskilstuna at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gais at 1.40 PPG versus AFC Eskilstuna's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gais, 1 for AFC Eskilstuna and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 39% versus AFC Eskilstuna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.36 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.952 / defence 1.130 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.867 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.218. Data: 18 Gais games / 48 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gais 33% | AFC Eskilstuna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Gais 1.36 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.952 / def 1.130 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.867 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Gais (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.19
AFC Eskilstuna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Gais 3 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 40% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 2 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.47
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Gais xG
Total xG
2.56
1.19
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gais and 1.19 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 6D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Gais's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.56 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gais or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
2
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Gais 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 33%, AFC Eskilstuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gais) and 56% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gais's recent matches and 44% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gais's recent games and 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.36 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.19 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 40% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.