GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trelleborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Trelleborg arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trelleborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 2W, Trelleborg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 4–3 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 57% and Trelleborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 64% | Trelleborg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.39 xG and Trelleborg 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.883 / defence 1.391 | Trelleborg attack 1.096 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.206. Data: 17 GIF Sundsvall games / 47 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 48%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Trelleborg 2.08. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.39 / Trelleborg 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.883 / def 1.391 | Trelleborg attack 1.096 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Trelleborg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.88) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.10x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
28%
3.53
24%
4.14
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.22
1.84
Trelleborg xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
22.17
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.84 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 47 games, going 9W 6D 32L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 47 outings (19W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 6W 2D 15L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 6D 32L in their last 47 games (0.70 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.87 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for GIF Sundsvall, 70% for Trelleborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for GIF Sundsvall and 65% for Trelleborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 65% of Trelleborg's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 18, as GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.39 xG and Trelleborg 1.84 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.39 against Trelleborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 24% | Trelleborg 48%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 64%, Trelleborg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.