Orgryte IS 0-3 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Orebro SK travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Orebro SK are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Orebro SK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 58% versus Orebro SK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 54% | Orebro SK 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.68 xG and Orebro SK 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / defence 1.228 | Orebro SK attack 0.970 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.186. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Orgryte IS games / 50 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 31%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Orgryte IS dominate the H2H record, yet Orebro SK are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Orgryte IS 1.68 / Orebro SK 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / def 1.228 | Orebro SK attack 0.970 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Orebro SK xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS 0 - 3 Orebro SK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 43% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Orgryte IS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.90x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.89
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.09
1.41
Orebro SK xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.41 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 17D 20L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.12 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (6W 10D 8L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 5W 7D 12L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.08 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Orebro SK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 5, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Orebro SK?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 62%, Orebro SK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Orgryte IS) and 58% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Orgryte IS's games and 54% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Orgryte IS's matches and 58% of Orebro SK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Orgryte IS 0-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.68 xG and Orebro SK 1.41 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Orebro SK outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against Orebro SK attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 43% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 31%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 54%, Orebro SK 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG, Orebro SK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.