AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AFC Eskilstuna (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AFC Eskilstuna face Orgryte IS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 22 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Orgryte IS to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, AFC Eskilstuna have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Orgryte IS 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 53% versus Orgryte IS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Orgryte IS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.59 xG and Orgryte IS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.947 / defence 0.838 | Orgryte IS attack 0.849 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.169. Data: 51 AFC Eskilstuna games / 51 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 18%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Orgryte IS 5.56. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Orgryte IS 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.59 / Orgryte IS 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.947 / def 0.838 | Orgryte IS attack 0.849 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Orgryte IS xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 54% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 2W | Draws 3 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 0.95x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.58
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.83
Orgryte IS xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
27.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.83 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 11D 22L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 13W 17D 21L from 51 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.27 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.29 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 11D 22L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Orgryte IS away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.64 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
3
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Orgryte IS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 56% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.59 xG and Orgryte IS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.95 / defence 0.84 against Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 54% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 18%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 51%, Orgryte IS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.