Gefle IF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gefle IF at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Jonkopings Sodra travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gavlevallen this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Gefle IF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gefle IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gefle IF trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gefle IF 60% and Jonkopings Sodra 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 2.24 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.072 / defence 1.108 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.016 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.190. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Gefle IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Gefle IF games / 50 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 57% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 21%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Gefle IF (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 57% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Gefle IF 2.24 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.072 / def 1.108 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.016 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jonkopings Sodra xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Gefle IF 1 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 57% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (1.07) and Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.50
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.58
1.34
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
11%
9.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
2%
44.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.34 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gefle IF come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 4D 8L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.40 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gefle IF's home form reads 6W 2D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (1W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.65 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gefle IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jonkopings Sodra in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Gefle IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
0
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Gefle IF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gefle IF at 60%, Jonkopings Sodra at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Gefle IF and 80% for Jonkopings Sodra. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gefle IF's games and 70% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gefle IF's matches and 80% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Gefle IF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gefle IF edge out Jonkopings Sodra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 2.24 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.34 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gefle IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.02 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 57% | Draw 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 21%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.40 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.