Orgryte IS 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orgryte IS face IK brage.

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Analysis & Preview

IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS in Superettan (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Orgryte IS at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, IK brage stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

IK brage away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.70 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for IK brage and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Orgryte IS 1–1 IK brage — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

IK brage in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | IK brage 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.25 xG and IK brage 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.954 / defence 1.222 | IK brage attack 0.955 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.918. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IK brage's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 32 games and IK brage's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 30% | IK brage 31%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.54 | Draw 3.31 | IK brage 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Orgryte IS 32 games, IK brage 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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