Ostersunds FK 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ostersunds FK face Orgryte IS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.60 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Ostersunds FK edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Ostersunds FK 2–2 Orgryte IS — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 60% versus Orgryte IS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 44% | Orgryte IS 53%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Ostersunds FK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG and Orgryte IS 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.043 / defence 0.963 | Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.888. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 33 games and Orgryte IS's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 3.31 | Orgryte IS 4.21. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ostersunds FK 80% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Ostersunds FK 33 games, Orgryte IS 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.20 / Orgryte IS 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.043 / def 0.963 | Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.888 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Orgryte IS xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.90x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 33 games and Orgryte IS's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.31
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
1.97
0.77
Orgryte IS xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.77 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 18W 23D 21L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.21 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 11D 8L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 11W 7D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.27 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.52 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 64%, Orgryte IS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ostersunds FK) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ostersunds FK's games and 55% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 81% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG and Orgryte IS 0.77 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 44%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.24 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.