GIF Sundsvall 3-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 42%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Skövde AIK travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Skövde AIK away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Skövde AIK are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Skövde AIK and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Skövde AIK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | Skövde AIK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG and Skövde AIK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.990 / defence 0.924 | Skövde AIK attack 1.057 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 0.972. Data: 32 GIF Sundsvall games / 32 Skövde AIK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 31% | Skövde AIK 28%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Skövde AIK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Skövde AIK 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 31% | Skövde AIK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.23 / Skövde AIK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.990 / def 0.924 | Skövde AIK attack 1.057 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.291 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Skövde AIK xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 42% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.99) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.27
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
Skövde AIK xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 10D 37L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (19W 18D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Skövde AIK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 5D 16L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 games (0.82 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Skövde AIK away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.07 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.87 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIF Sundsvall have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 67%, Skövde AIK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for GIF Sundsvall and 67% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 60% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 67% of Skövde AIK's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Skövde AIK 3-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG and Skövde AIK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against Skövde AIK attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 31% | Skövde AIK 28%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 60%, Skövde AIK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.