AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 47%, yet in-form IK brage provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tunavallen, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
IK brage have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IK brage are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AFC Eskilstuna 1W, IK brage 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 51% versus IK brage 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 49% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 xG and IK brage 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.720 / defence 0.873 | IK brage attack 0.849 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.075. AFC Eskilstuna's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 AFC Eskilstuna games / 43 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 4.17. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IK brage (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | IK brage 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 / IK brage 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.720 / def 0.873 | IK brage attack 0.849 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.80
IK brage xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 1 IK brage.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 47% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
Record (4 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 1 | IK brage 2W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 0.72x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.85x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.40
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.04
0.80
IK brage xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.80 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 14W 9D 20L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 17W 11D 15L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.44 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 14W 9D 20L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or IK brage away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.48 PPG; IK brage away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 52%, IK brage 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 62% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna have failed to score in 29% of games; IK brage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 67% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 62% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IK brage in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out IK brage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat IK brage 2-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 xG and IK brage 0.80 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.72 / defence 0.87 against IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 49%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.19 PPG, IK brage 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.