Orgryte IS 2-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.40 (AFC Eskilstuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 1 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–4 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 60% versus AFC Eskilstuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 40% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.58 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.009 / defence 1.042 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.740 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.137. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Orgryte IS games / 20 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.76. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Orgryte IS 1.58 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.009 / def 1.042 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.740 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AFC Eskilstuna xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 54% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.01) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.97
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.46
0.88
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
23.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.88 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 6W 9D 5L from 20 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 8L across 20 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.35 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 3W 5D 1L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.56 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 56%, AFC Eskilstuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Orgryte IS and 33% for AFC Eskilstuna.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 44% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 33% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and AFC Eskilstuna finished level at 2-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.58 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.74 / defence 1.46, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 21%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 40%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.35 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.