Jonkopings Sodra 0-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees IK brage travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadsparksvallen, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 PPG, IK brage 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, IK brage 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
IK brage in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 48% versus IK brage 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 52% | IK brage 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.71 xG and IK brage 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.167 / defence 1.188 | IK brage attack 1.005 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.128. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Jonkopings Sodra games / 21 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 24% | IK brage 30%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | IK brage 3.33. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 24% | IK brage 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.71 / IK brage 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.167 / def 1.188 | IK brage attack 1.005 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.35
IK brage xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 46% chance of winning, IK brage a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (1.17) and IK brage's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.23
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.05
1.35
IK brage xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.35 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 3D 9L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of IK brage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 3D 9L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while IK brage have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or IK brage away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 2.22 PPG; IK brage away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, IK brage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jonkopings Sodra at 67%, IK brage at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jonkopings Sodra and 67% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 78% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 67% of IK brage's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IK brage in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jonkopings Sodra's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 22, as Jonkopings Sodra and IK brage drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.71 xG and IK brage 1.35 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.7 short of their projected output. IK brage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against IK brage attack 1.00 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 24% | IK brage 30%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 52%, IK brage 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.