AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Vasalund travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Vasalund — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasalund have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
AFC Eskilstuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Vasalund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–4 with Vasalund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vasalund trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 47% versus Vasalund 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Vasalund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.06 xG and Vasalund 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.455 / defence 1.010 | Vasalund attack 0.682 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.090. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 AFC Eskilstuna games / 20 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 68% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 12%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Vasalund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Vasalund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 68% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 46% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.06 / Vasalund 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.455 / def 1.010 | Vasalund attack 0.682 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Vasalund xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 2 Vasalund.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 68% chance of winning, Vasalund a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Vasalund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.12
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.81
0.75
Vasalund xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
2%
63.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.75 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 7W 5D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 5W 3D 11L from 19 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AFC Eskilstuna are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Vasalund away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.33 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.56 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vasalund in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
2
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Vasalund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund?
Vasalund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Vasalund 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 56% (Vasalund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Vasalund in 33%; Vasalund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 44% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 56% of Vasalund's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Vasalund tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasalund defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasalund beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.06 xG and Vasalund 0.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vasalund outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.46 / defence 1.01 against Vasalund attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 68% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 12%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Vasalund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 47%, Vasalund 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasalund's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Vasalund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.