Orebro SK 1-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 57%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Norrby IF have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 2 games: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Norrby IF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Norrby IF's last 2 games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Orebro SK's games and 100% of Norrby IF's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Orebro SK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Sep 2022, ended Orebro SK 0–0 Norrby IF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.72 xG and Norrby IF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.994 / defence 0.899 | Norrby IF attack 0.846 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.178. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 33 games and Norrby IF's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 24% | Norrby IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.76 | Draw 4.22 | Norrby IF 5.16. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Norrby IF's last 2 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Orebro SK 33 games, Norrby IF 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 24% | Norrby IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Orebro SK 1.72 / Norrby IF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.994 / def 0.899 | Norrby IF attack 0.846 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Norrby IF xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs Norrby IF FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs Norrby IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Norrby IF kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Norrby IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Norrby IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 57% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orebro SK and Norrby IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Orebro SK vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.99x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.85x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 33 games and Norrby IF's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.22
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.62
0.90
Norrby IF xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
28.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs Norrby IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.90 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Norrby IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five.
Norrby IF's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Norrby IF's attacking output running into Orebro SK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Norrby IF in 100%.
Defensively: Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Early Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
Orebro SK (Home) vs Norrby IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Early Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
❓ Orebro SK vs Norrby IF Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Orebro SK or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs Norrby IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Norrby IF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Norrby IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Norrby IF 3-1 Orebro SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs Norrby IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and Norrby IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 100% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and Norrby IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orebro SK's recent games and 50% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Norrby IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 50% of Norrby IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Orebro SK and Norrby IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.72 xG and Norrby IF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Norrby IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 57% | Draw 24% | Norrby IF 19%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 0%, Norrby IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Norrby IF managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.