Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orebro SK make the trip to Paskbergsvallen to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Paskbergsvallen, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orebro SK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Varbergs BoIS FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Orebro SK in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Varbergs BoIS FC lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 67% and Orebro SK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Orebro SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.141 / defence 1.059 | Orebro SK attack 0.899 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.234. Data: 34 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 34 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 27%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 3.70. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | Orebro SK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 / Orebro SK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.141 / def 1.059 | Orebro SK attack 0.899 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Orebro SK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 49% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK?
Record (8 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 4W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.90x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.12
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.18
Orebro SK xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.18 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 19D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.07 PPG from 60 outings (15W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.07 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.60 points per game from 30 outings (3W 9D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Orebro SK in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Orebro SK away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 6 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 13 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4, Orebro SK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Orebro SK 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Varbergs BoIS FC, 73% for Orebro SK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 60% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 73% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 5, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Orebro SK attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 49% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 27%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 PPG, Orebro SK 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.