Orebro SK 0-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours IK brage — this Orebro SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IK brage in Superettan (matchday 6). Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IK brage (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.20 for IK brage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Orebro SK's last 10 home games and IK brage's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Orebro SK's games and 70% of IK brage's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to IK brage, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Orebro SK 5–4 IK brage — a Orebro SK win.
The H2H data backs the away side. IK brage have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
IK brage — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 65% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | IK brage 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orebro SK surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while IK brage have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that IK brage surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Orebro SK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.31 xG and IK brage 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.961 / defence 0.880 | IK brage attack 0.902 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.248. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 35 games and IK brage's last 35.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 28% | IK brage 28%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.28 | Draw 3.59 | IK brage 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and IK brage's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 70% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 28% | IK brage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Orebro SK 1.31 / IK brage 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.961 / def 0.880 | IK brage attack 0.902 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
IK brage xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs IK brage kick off?
Orebro SK vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Orebro SK 0 - 3 IK brage.
Where is Orebro SK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IK brage part of?
Orebro SK vs IK brage is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 44% chance of winning, IK brage a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orebro SK and IK brage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Orebro SK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.90x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 35 games and IK brage's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.59
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.30
0.99
IK brage xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.99 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 19D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (22W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 10D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
Orebro SK (Home) vs IK brage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IK brage away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; IK brage away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Orebro SK and IK brage, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won IK brage 3-0 Orebro SK on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
6
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 2, IK brage have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IK brage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: IK brage 3-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 57%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orebro SK) and 43% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 30% of games; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and IK brage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 50% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and IK brage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Orebro SK's recent games and 43% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IK brage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 60% of IK brage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orebro SK 0-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.31 xG and IK brage 0.99 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IK brage outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against IK brage attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 44% | Draw 28% | IK brage 28%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.07 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.