Orebro SK vs Enköping Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Enköping.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Orebro SK host Enköping at Behrn Arena in Superettan (Final). Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Orebro SK — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Orebro SK have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.18 xG and Enköping 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.734 / defence 0.875 | Enköping attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.302. Orebro SK's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 60 games and Enköping's last 0.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 38% | Draw 34% | Enköping 28%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.60 | Draw 2.95 | Enköping 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

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