Lund vs Norrby IF Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Lund at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lund face Norrby IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lund and Norrby IF meet at Klostergardens Idrottsplats in Superettan (Final). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Norrby IF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Norrby IF away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lund 1.16 xG and Norrby IF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Norrby IF attack 0.608 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.302. Norrby IF's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Lund's last 0 games and Norrby IF's last 30.
Result probabilities: Lund 39% | Draw 35% | Norrby IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Lund 2.56 | Draw 2.89 | Norrby IF 3.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lund are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lund vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Final | Venue: Klostergardens Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lund 39% | Draw 35% | Norrby IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Lund 1.16 / Norrby IF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Norrby IF attack 0.608 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Lund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lund xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Norrby IF xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lund vs Norrby IF FAQs
What time does Lund vs Norrby IF kick off?
Lund vs Norrby IF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Klostergardens Idrottsplats.
Where is Lund vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Klostergardens Idrottsplats.
What competition is Lund vs Norrby IF part of?
Lund vs Norrby IF is a Superettan fixture (Final) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Lund vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Lund a 39% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lund vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lund and Norrby IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Lund vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lund's attack rating (0.85) and Norrby IF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.61x) against Lund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Lund's last 0 games and Norrby IF's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lund Win
39%
2.56
35%
2.89
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lund xG
Total xG
2.06
0.91
Norrby IF xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lund vs Norrby IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lund vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lund and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lund and 0.91 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lund vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lund
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Lund (Home) vs Norrby IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lund
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lund home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.