Norrby IF vs Lund Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Lund at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norrby IF face Lund.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Lund travel to face Norrby IF in Superettan (Final). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Norrby IF have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Norrby IF's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Norrby IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.30 xG and Lund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.804 / defence 1.338 | Lund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.302. Norrby IF's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lund's projected output up. Data: built from Norrby IF's last 30 games and Lund's last 0.

Result probabilities: Norrby IF 31% | Draw 29% | Lund 39%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.22 | Draw 3.40 | Lund 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lund as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.