Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 50%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osters IF are 0.90 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Osters IF have the stronger record — 4 wins to Landskrona BoIS's 0, with 4 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Landskrona BoIS 0–0 Osters IF — a draw.
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Osters IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 60% | Osters IF 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Landskrona BoIS surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Osters IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Osters IF surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Landskrona BoIS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.71 xG and Osters IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.877 / defence 0.970 | Osters IF attack 0.952 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.250. Osters IF's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Osters IF's last 4.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.98 | Draw 4.19 | Osters IF 3.90. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 60% (last 10 home games) | Osters IF 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.71 / Osters IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.877 / def 0.970 | Osters IF attack 0.952 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Osters IF xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:05 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 50% chance of winning, Osters IF a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 0.88x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.95x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Osters IF's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.19
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.87
1.15
Osters IF xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.15 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 11W 8D 11L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 15W 9D 6L from 30 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Landskrona BoIS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 15 home games (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 6W 5D 4L from their last 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.83 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Osters IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Osters IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.53 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Osters IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won Landskrona BoIS 1-4 Osters IF on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Osters IF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Osters IF 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 67%, Osters IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Landskrona BoIS) and 47% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 60% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 47% of Osters IF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 60% of Osters IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF finished level at 2-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.71 xG and Osters IF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Osters IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 26%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 60%, Osters IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.