GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as GIF Sundsvall welcome Oddevold to NP3 Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oddevold's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oddevold — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Oddevold 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Oddevold in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 52% versus Oddevold 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Oddevold 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.95 xG and Oddevold 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.047 / defence 1.166 | Oddevold attack 1.219 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.226. Oddevold have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 GIF Sundsvall games / 34 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Oddevold 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 71% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oddevold (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Oddevold 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.95 / Oddevold 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.047 / def 1.166 | Oddevold attack 1.219 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Oddevold xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 3 Oddevold.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance of winning, Oddevold a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Record (4 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.05) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
43%
2.30
22%
4.65
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.70
1.74
Oddevold xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
8%
13.16
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.74 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 14D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (21W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.28 PPG, Oddevold on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.30 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.47 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Oddevold in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Oddevold have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Oddevold 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 50% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 37%; Oddevold in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 50% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 50% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat GIF Sundsvall 1-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.95 xG and Oddevold 1.74 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Oddevold outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Oddevold attack 1.22 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Oddevold 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.28 PPG, Oddevold 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.