Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Halmstad at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Halmstad's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Halmstad have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Halmstad are 0.80 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS in recent Superettan fixtures (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Halmstad 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | Halmstad 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Halmstad 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.141 / defence 1.199 | Halmstad attack 1.214 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.323. Halmstad have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Landskrona BoIS games / 12 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 23% | Halmstad 44%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Halmstad 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 80% | Halmstad 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 23% | Halmstad 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.65 / Halmstad 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.141 / def 1.199 | Halmstad attack 1.214 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Halmstad xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance of winning, Halmstad a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Halmstad (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.14) and Halmstad's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (1.21x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
33%
3.01
23%
4.42
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.58
1.93
Halmstad xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
5%
20.66
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.93 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 17W 10D 15L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 12L across 42 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.38 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Halmstad's away record stands at 8W 6D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.12 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 14W 16D 12L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Halmstad away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.15 PPG; Halmstad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Halmstad in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Halmstad have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Halmstad 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 65%, Halmstad 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Landskrona BoIS) and 35% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Halmstad in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Halmstad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 45% of Halmstad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 35% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Halmstad tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Halmstad 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Halmstad 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Halmstad 1.93 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Halmstad landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.14 / defence 1.20 against Halmstad attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 23% | Halmstad 44%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 48%, Halmstad 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Halmstad's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG, Halmstad 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.