Dalkurd FF 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalkurd FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Dalkurd FF versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalkurd FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Superettan appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dalkurd FF are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Dalkurd FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 46% versus Landskrona BoIS 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 54% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.991 / defence 1.137 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.926 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.366. Data: 11 Dalkurd FF games / 41 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 37% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 36%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalkurd FF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalkurd FF 57% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 37% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.44 / Landskrona BoIS 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.991 / def 1.137 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.926 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Dalkurd FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Dalkurd FF 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 37% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalkurd FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalkurd FF's attack rating (0.99) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.93x) against Dalkurd FF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalkurd FF Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.68
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.88
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.44 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalkurd FF's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 4L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 1.31 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalkurd FF have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Dalkurd FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalkurd FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.54 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalkurd FF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Dalkurd FF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalkurd FF at home: 1.71 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalkurd FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalkurd FF 57%, Landskrona BoIS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Dalkurd FF) and 29% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF have failed to score in 29% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dalkurd FF's recent matches and 43% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 29% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Dalkurd FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Dalkurd FF 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalkurd FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 37% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 36%, with Dalkurd FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 54%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalkurd FF 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.