Jonkopings Sodra 5-1 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Jonkopings Sodra take on Vasalund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasalund make the trip to Vapenvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 0.52 xG and Vasalund 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vasalund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.535 / away 0.765. Data: 0 Jonkopings Sodra games / 0 Vasalund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 23% | Draw 40% | Vasalund 37%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 4.35 | Draw 2.50 | Vasalund 2.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 14% | BTTS probability 22% | Total xG 1.27. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 86% probability — total xG of 1.27 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 78% — Jonkopings Sodra's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 22%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 14% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 23% | Draw 40% | Vasalund 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 14% | BTTS 22% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 0.52 / Vasalund 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vasalund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.535 / away 0.765 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.52
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Vasalund xG
22%
BTTS
36%
Over 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund?
Jonkopings Sodra 5 - 1 Vasalund.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 23% chance of winning, Vasalund a 37% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 22% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 14%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.52. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (0.85x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 29.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.6%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 62% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.39
40%
2.47
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
28.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.52
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
1.27
0.75
Vasalund xG
4.39
23%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
36%
Over 1.5
2.78
64%
Under 1.5
1.56
14%
Over 2.5
7.14
86%
Under 2.5
1.16
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
22%
BTTS Yes
4.63
78%
BTTS No
1.28
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
59%
1.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28.1 | 21.0 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 29.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 0.52 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.75 for Vasalund, a combined total of 1.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Vasalund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Vasalund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Vasalund 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasalund?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Jonkopings Sodra run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Vasalund 5-1 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 0.52 xG and Vasalund 0.75 xG, a combined 1.27. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vasalund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 23% | Draw 40% | Vasalund 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 14%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 36% and landed. Over 3.5 was 4% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.