Norrby IF 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norrby IF host Jonkopings Sodra at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.20 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.966 / defence 1.150 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 0.870. Data: 1 Norrby IF games / 1 Jonkopings Sodra games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 26%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norrby IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Norrby IF 1.20 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.966 / def 1.150 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.081 / away 0.870 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jonkopings Sodra xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 April 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Norrby IF 2 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 44% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.36
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.05
0.85
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.85 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.20 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.85 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 44% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 26%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.