GIF Sundsvall 2-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG and Helsingborg 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Helsingborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 0.727. Data: 0 GIF Sundsvall games / 0 Helsingborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 34% | Helsingborg 26%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Helsingborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Helsingborg's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 34% | Helsingborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.96 / Helsingborg 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Helsingborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.979 / away 0.727 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Helsingborg xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 April 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 40% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.85) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.85x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.94
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
1.67
0.71
Helsingborg xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.71 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
6
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Helsingborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 1, as GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG and Helsingborg 0.71 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helsingborg outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Helsingborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 34% | Helsingborg 26%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.