IK brage 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Trelleborg — this IK brage vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Trelleborg meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
IK brage's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, IK brage have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Trelleborg away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IK brage against 1.60 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Trelleborg, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Jun 2024, ended IK brage 0–1 Trelleborg — a Trelleborg win.
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Trelleborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Trelleborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.842 / defence 0.987 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.169. Data: built from IK brage's last 56 games and Trelleborg's last 56.
Result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.48 | Draw 3.34 | Trelleborg 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IK brage 20% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 27 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG IK brage 1.33 / Trelleborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.842 / def 0.987 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Trelleborg kick off?
IK brage vs Trelleborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
IK brage 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is IK brage vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Trelleborg part of?
IK brage vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 40% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IK brage and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IK brage vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.84x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.96x) against IK brage's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 56 games and Trelleborg's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.34
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Trelleborg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IK brage and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IK brage and 1.11 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 20W 15D 21L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for IK brage against 1.34 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
IK brage (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ IK brage vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Trelleborg away?
IK brage's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.89 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IK brage or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between IK brage and Trelleborg, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 31 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
IK brage have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Trelleborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 3, Trelleborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2025: IK brage 2-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 46%, Trelleborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Trelleborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Trelleborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IK brage's recent matches and 57% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IK brage and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of IK brage's recent matches and 75% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Trelleborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trelleborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.39 PPG, Trelleborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.