Orgryte IS 4-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sandviken travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 1.70 PPG, Sandviken 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sandviken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for Sandviken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Sandviken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandviken in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 65% versus Sandviken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 58% | Sandviken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.98 xG and Sandviken 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.269 / defence 1.228 | Sandviken attack 1.011 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.170. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Orgryte IS games / 26 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 28%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Sandviken 3.57. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Sandviken 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Orgryte IS 1.98 / Sandviken 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.269 / def 1.228 | Sandviken attack 1.011 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sandviken xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Orgryte IS 4 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken part of?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, Sandviken a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Orgryte IS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.27x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.31
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.43
1.45
Sandviken xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.45 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 9W 7D 10L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandviken's form line: 12W 6D 8L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.31 PPG, Sandviken on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Sandviken have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.65 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Sandviken away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.38 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sandviken in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 77%, Sandviken at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Orgryte IS and 62% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Orgryte IS's games and 54% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Orgryte IS's matches and 62% of Sandviken's.
Do Orgryte IS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Sandviken 4-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.98 xG and Sandviken 1.45 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.27 / defence 1.23 against Sandviken attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 28%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 58%, Sandviken 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.31 PPG, Sandviken 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Sandviken (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.