IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Utsikten at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Utsikten have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, IF Brommapojkarna have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Utsikten in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for Utsikten and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Utsikten trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 72% and Utsikten 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 68% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 2.91 xG and Utsikten 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.382 / defence 0.928 | Utsikten attack 0.938 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.271. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 2.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Utsikten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 IF Brommapojkarna games / 25 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 74% | Draw 15% | Utsikten 11%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Utsikten 9.09. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.91 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 70% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 74% | Draw 15% | Utsikten 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 2.91 / Utsikten 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.382 / def 0.928 | Utsikten attack 0.938 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.91
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Utsikten xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 74% chance of winning, Utsikten a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Utsikten (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (1.38) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.51
11%
9.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.91
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
4.01
1.11
Utsikten xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.51
15%
Draw
9.08
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
5%
18.28
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
1%
166.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 2.91 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.11 for Utsikten, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 15W 5D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten's form line: 8W 5D 12L from 25 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Brommapojkarna are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Utsikten.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2.67 PPG from 12 outings (10W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Utsikten have gone 5W 0D 7L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.32 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 5D 5L in their last 25 games (2.00 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Utsikten away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.67 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Utsikten have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 75%, Utsikten 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for IF Brommapojkarna and 67% for Utsikten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 50% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 67% of Utsikten's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utsikten defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.91 xG and Utsikten 1.11 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.38 / defence 0.93 against Utsikten attack 0.94 / defence 1.43, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 74% | Draw 15% | Utsikten 11%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 68%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Utsikten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.