GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandviken make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sandviken (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sandviken have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sandviken are 0.90 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall in recent Superettan fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours GIF Sundsvall, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Sandviken — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The historical record gives GIF Sundsvall a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandviken — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 52% versus Sandviken 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Sandviken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.68 xG and Sandviken 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.041 / defence 1.310 | Sandviken attack 0.802 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.396. Data: 39 GIF Sundsvall games / 39 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 34%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
GIF Sundsvall dominate the H2H record, yet Sandviken are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma. Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandviken (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Sandviken 40%.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.68 / Sandviken 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.041 / def 1.310 | Sandviken attack 0.802 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sandviken xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 3 Sandviken.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance of winning, Sandviken a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
Record (4 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 3W | Draws 1 | Sandviken 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.04) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.80x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.25
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.15
1.47
Sandviken xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.47 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 14D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (24W 12D 24L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.40 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Sandviken away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.30 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sandviken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 5-0 on 1 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Sandviken 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 67% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 53% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat GIF Sundsvall 0-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.68 xG and Sandviken 1.47 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sandviken outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Sandviken attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 34%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandviken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.28 PPG, Sandviken 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.