Ljungskile SK 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC meet at Skarsjövallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.11 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.816 / defence 1.035 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.354 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.372. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Ljungskile SK games / 39 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 22% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 22% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.11 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.816 / def 1.035 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.354 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Ljungskile SK 1 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 22% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ljungskile SK's attack rating (0.82) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.35x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
22%
4.63
22%
4.53
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.92
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
3%
31.70
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.92 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Ljungskile SK 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ljungskile SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Ljungskile SK 1-3 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.11 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.92 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 22% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.