Ostersunds FK 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Ostersunds FK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 0.80 (GIF Sundsvall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 56% versus GIF Sundsvall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 42% | GIF Sundsvall 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 2.14 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.258 / defence 1.179 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.836 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.116. Ostersunds FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Ostersunds FK games / 15 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 61% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | GIF Sundsvall 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 70% | GIF Sundsvall 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 61% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Ostersunds FK 2.14 / GIF Sundsvall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.258 / def 1.179 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.836 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 61% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.95
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.24
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
2%
45.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 15D 17L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 9W 4D 32L from 45 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ostersunds FK are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 2D 17L from 22 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.02 scored and 2.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 4D 32L in their last 45 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.55 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 59%, GIF Sundsvall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 59% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 46% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 59% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.14 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.26 / defence 1.18 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 61% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 42%, GIF Sundsvall 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.