Landskrona BoIS 1-3 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Utsikten away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Landskrona BoIS's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Utsikten's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Utsikten in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, Utsikten 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Utsikten — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 63% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG and Utsikten 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.061 / defence 0.981 | Utsikten attack 1.001 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.037. Data: 31 Landskrona BoIS games / 31 Utsikten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Utsikten 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.51 / Utsikten 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.061 / def 0.981 | Utsikten attack 1.001 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Utsikten xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 3 Utsikten.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 49% chance of winning, Utsikten a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.06) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.00x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.87
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.53
1.02
Utsikten xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.02 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 11W 11D 8L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.23 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Utsikten have gone 6W 1D 8L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.33 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Utsikten away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.93 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Utsikten have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 80%, Utsikten 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Landskrona BoIS) and 53% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 47% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 53% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 1-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG and Utsikten 1.02 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Utsikten attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Utsikten 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.