Degerfors IF 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Degerfors IF host Trelleborg at Stora Valla in Superettan (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Degerfors IF have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Trelleborg — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Trelleborg have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Degerfors IF are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2024, ended Degerfors IF 1–1 Trelleborg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Trelleborg in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 63% versus Trelleborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Trelleborg 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Degerfors IF surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Trelleborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.82 xG and Trelleborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.160 / defence 0.913 | Trelleborg attack 1.043 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.176. Trelleborg's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Degerfors IF's projected output up. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 24 games and Trelleborg's last 54.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 22%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 4.51. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 70% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 50% (last 10 away games).

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