Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 0.90 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.091 / defence 0.777 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.132 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.197. Orebro SK's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Orebro SK games / 54 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 40% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 29%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 60% | Landskrona BoIS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 40% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Orebro SK 1.28 / Landskrona BoIS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.091 / def 0.777 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.132 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orebro SK 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 40% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.31
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.33
1.05
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.05 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 17D 22L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 23W 12D 19L from 54 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (12W 11D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 11L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.43 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.74 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 44%, Landskrona BoIS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Orebro SK) and 63% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 59% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Orebro SK's recent games and 63% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 40% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 29%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.