GIF Sundsvall 3-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 1L across 8 games at NP3 Arena this term (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for GIF Sundsvall, 1.40 for AFC Eskilstuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 44% versus AFC Eskilstuna 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 31% | AFC Eskilstuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.93 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.244 / defence 1.156 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.738 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.051. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 GIF Sundsvall games / 16 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 38%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.93 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.244 / def 1.156 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.738 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.90
AFC Eskilstuna xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 62% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.24) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.74x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.63
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.82
0.90
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
40.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.90 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 7W 4D 5L from 16 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 6L across 16 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.38 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AFC Eskilstuna in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.12 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.25 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 25% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 38% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 25% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.93 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.90 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.24 / defence 1.16 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 62% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 31%, AFC Eskilstuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.56 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.