Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasteras SK FK face IF Elfsborg.

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Match Analysis

Vasteras SK FK host IF Elfsborg at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

IF Elfsborg — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.

On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 0.40 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, IF Elfsborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Vasteras SK FK 0–1 IF Elfsborg — a IF Elfsborg win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus IF Elfsborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 47% | IF Elfsborg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / defence 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.903 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.293. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 1 games and IF Elfsborg's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.84 | Draw 3.80 | IF Elfsborg 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 90% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Vasteras SK FK 1 games, IF Elfsborg 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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