Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna meet at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 4W 4D 2L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IF Brommapojkarna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Vasteras SK FK's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 3 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 49% versus IF Brommapojkarna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 63% | IF Brommapojkarna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.72 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / defence 0.957 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.989 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Vasteras SK FK games / 49 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 48% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.70. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
IF Brommapojkarna lead the H2H ledger, but Vasteras SK FK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 48% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.72 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / def 0.957 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.989 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.24
IF Brommapojkarna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 48% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (5 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 3W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.99x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.90
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.96
1.24
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.24 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 10D 11L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.12 PPG from 49 outings (15W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 14W 8D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.37 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 28W 10D 11L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.08 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vasteras SK FK) and 62% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 58% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 62% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.